Theoretical Constructs of Trends based on Available Data

Dr. Martin describes projections as “involve theoretical constructs of trends based on available data” (Martin, 2017, p. 426), and predictions as “practical applications of data (that is, intelligence) to anticipate specific behaviors by extremists” (Martin, 2017, p. 426).  Based on those two definitions I think it is safe to say we can project and predict Afghanistan.  With a terrorist group assuming governmental control, the expectation of murder and mayhem should be a concern.

In addition, the citizens of Afghanistan have had a taste of democracy and it will be difficult to return them to sharia law.  Although Sharia is tradition for the region it places the females in a third world perspective without access to education, jobs, and violence. Although the Taliban leaders claim the group is “committed to the rights of women under the system of sharia (Islamic) law” (Pitofsky, 2021), that is yet to be seen.

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The activity of terrorist will significantly rise over the next decade and I expect the internet to be a major tool. “In the future, the Internet (and its various applications and functions) might be the definitive example of problems associated with dual use technology” (Allison, 2010), was expressed by Luke Allison in his article, The Future of Terrorism: Mass Hostage Taking in Russia and Mumbai.  Mr. Allison further expressed the use of the internet, although there are good and bad uses, will be exploited by terrorist to achieve their goals.  “Dule use technology can do everything from pedantic to enabling terrorist” (Allison, 2010).  Social media platforms can be abused, and innocent users can be victimized.  If the use of technology in this manner becomes a new norm, the opportunity for terrorist to preach their ideology worldwide can be difficult for law enforcement to contain.

A flashpoint for the Taliban and Al Qaeda will always be 9/11.  Not only does it represent the day they sucker punched the United States, but it also represents them successfully luring America into a winless war that would cost millions of lives and billions of dollars.

 

 

References

Allison, L. (2010). The Future of Terrorism: Mass Hostage Taking in Russia and Mumbai. Small Wars Journal. Retrieved August 19, 2021, from https://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/428-allison.pdf

Martin, G. (2017). Understanding Terrorism Challenges, Perspectives, and Issues (6 ed.). California State University, Dominguez Hills, California, United States: Sage Publication Ltd. Retrieved August 19, 2021

Pitofsky, M. (2021, August 19). What is Sharia Law? And how will the Taliban use it in Afghanistan. USA Today. Retrieved August 19, 2021, from https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2021/08/19/sharia-law-definition-heres-what-know-religious-system/8196614002/

 

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