Drivers of all ages claim to be more skillful than average. But does this overconfidence matter? It does because overconfident drivers are more likely to use their cell phones while driving, which signifi- cantly increases the risk of an accident.
More broadly, overconfident decision makers are likely to make bad choices. They are likely to overestimate their chances of success and apt to attribute failures to bad luck (hence not learning from them). For example, the fact that companies often lose money when they buy other companies is common knowledge. Acquiring a company requires a bid above its current market valuation, and its current market valuation is as likely to be too high as it is to be too low. So, it takes a confident management team—one convinced of their skill and of unrecognized synergies—to buy another company. In many cases this confidence amounts to overconfidence and the acquisition is unprofitable. Overconfident CEOs often make money-losing acquisitions.
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