Eighty percent of the participants at a meeting are physicians. The rest are nurse practitioners. Your neighbor Amy is there. She is 40, married, and highly motivated. Colleagues have told you that Amy is extremely capable and promises to be very successful. What is the probability that Amy is a physician?
Will you be in the top half of your class or the bottom? What proportion of your classmates will forecast that they will be in the top half? What implications does this scenario have for decision making?
You have finished interviewing candidates for an assistant director position. One of them stands out as the best candidate to you. You know that this view sets you up for confirmation bias as you check references. What steps can you take to prevent this bias?
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