The preceding account of technological forecast is based on the assumption that it relies on some theory, or rather theories, whether substantive or operative. This assumption may be found wanting by anyone knowing that the forecasts issued by experts in medicine, fi- nance, or politics are often successful and yet involve no great deal of theorizing. True, most often expert prognosis relies on inductive (em- pirical) generalizations of the form “A and B occur jointly with the observed frequency f,” or even just “A and B occur jointly in most cases,” or “Usually, whenever A then B.” The observation that a given individual, say a human subject or an economic state of affairs, has the property A is then used to forecast that it has, or will acquire, the property B. In daily life such prognoses are all we do, and the same applies to most expert prognoses. Occasionally such prognoses made with either ordinary knowledge or specialized but non-scientific knowl- edge are more successful than predictions made with full-fledged but false or rough theories; in many fields, however, the frequency of hits is not better than the one obtained by flipping a coin.
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